Of the 11 individual writers in this year’s lineup, only Sarah Polley (“ Women Talking”) has competed for this particular award before. Included among the seven sequels that have contended here before are winners “ The Godfather Part II” (1975) and “ The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2004) and nominees “ Before Sunset” (2005), “ Toy Story 3” (2011), “ Before Midnight” (2014), “ Logan” (2018), and “ Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2021).
“ Glass Onion” and “ Top Gun: Maverick,” which are, respectively, the first sequels to 2019’s “ Knives Out” and 1986’s “ Top Gun,” are the first pair of continuation films ever nominated against each other in this category. The films in contention for the 2023 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar are “ All Quiet on the Western Front,” “ Glass Onion,” “ Living,” “ Top Gun: Maverick,” and “ Women Talking.” Our odds currently indicate that “ Women Talking” (10/3) will win the award, followed in order of likelihood by “ All Quiet on the Western Front” (37/10), “ Glass Onion” (9/2), “ Top Gun: Maverick” (9/2), and “ Living” (9/2).
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